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Ohio · Natural gas prep

Getting your business ready for winter natural gas costs

Winter is when natural gas costs move the most. A little preparation in the fall can keep a cold snap from turning into a budget surprise.

What happened last winter

  • Last winter ran about 5% colder than the winter before in Ohio’s region (East North Central heating degree days, EIA).
  • In January 2026, Winter Storm Fern pushed the Henry Hub spot price to a record $30.72 per MMBtu on January 23.
  • Ohio delivery rates changed too: the PUCO approved a delivery rate increase for the Dayton-area natural gas utility in January 2026, its first base-rate change since 2018.

What the numbers say for this winter

  • The EIA expects U.S. dry natural gas production of about 112.2 Bcf per day in 2026, up about 4% from 2025.
  • Working natural gas in storage was 3,415 Bcf for the week ending September 25, 2026, 2.4% above the five-year average.
  • Natural gas fuels about 40% of U.S. power generation, so a cold week can lift electric prices as well.

Our view: supply looks solid going in, but one cold week can still reset a season. Plan for it.

Your winter checklist

  1. Find your contract end date.

    If it ends in winter, decide early. Renewing in the middle of a cold snap is the most expensive time to do it.

  2. Know which rate you’re on.

    On the default Standard Choice Offer or an index rate, your price follows the market every month.

  3. Pull last winter’s bills.

    Your December–February usage is the best guide to this winter’s exposure.

  4. Budget for a colder winter.

    Plan for usage and price both being higher than average, not just one.

  5. Check your equipment.

    Boiler and furnace tune-ups, door seals and thermostat schedules cut usage you’d otherwise pay for.

  6. Watch for estimated meter reads.

    An estimated read can hide a jump that shows up all at once later.

  7. Watch your bill-pay details.

    If you’re in the Dayton area, National Fuel took over the former CenterPoint Ohio utility on October 1, 2026. It says billing stays the same for now, with advance notice before any change.

Results are different for each business’s usage profile. See commercial natural gas and Ohio Energy Facts.

Want help getting ready?

Call 937-421-4122. Text photos of every page of your bill to 937-421-8100. Or email them to [email protected].

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Sources

  1. U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 9c (heating degree days, East North Central) and production forecast, Oct 2026. www.eia.gov
  2. U.S. EIA, Henry Hub natural gas spot price (daily). www.eia.gov
  3. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. ir.eia.gov
  4. PUCO, “PUCO adopts settlement agreement in CenterPoint distribution rate case,” Jan 7, 2026 (Case 24-0832-GA-AIR). puco.ohio.gov
  5. National Fuel, completion of acquisition of CenterPoint Energy’s Ohio natural gas utility, Oct 1, 2026. www.nationalfuel.com
  6. Energy Choice Ohio, Columbia natural gas utility Standard Choice Offer description (NYMEX month-end settlement plus retail price adjustment; April 2026–March 2027). www.energychoice.ohio.gov

Utility names are used just to identify service territories. U.S. Energy Sales Ohio is not affiliated with or endorsed by any utility named on this site.